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The Diff

Byrne Hobart

The Diff is a newsletter exploring the technologies, companies, and trends that are making the future high-variance. Posts range from in-depth company profiles, applied financial theory, strategy breakdowns and macroeconomics.

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  1. Understanding Anthropic 21:58
  2. Robots Are Coming for Jobs That Don't Exist Yet 12:21
  3. Doing Business in the Dark Forest 13:13
  4. The Super-Rich as Financial Sin-Eaters 12:04
  5. Life with Nonzero Interest Rates 9:34
  6. How Far in the Future Should You Be Trying to Live? 10:24
  7. Forward Deployed 43:26
  8. The Economics and Politics of Pacing the Frontier 14:05
  9. Staying Calibrated 13:10
  10. The Surprisingly Weak IPO-Housing Effect 10:54
  11. Ad-Supported Platforms are a Unique Antitrust Problem 13:07
  12. Financial Entrepreneurship in the Indexing Era 12:21
  13. FP&A as the Telemetry and Counterespionage 15:18
  14. Who Hedges Where? 12:19
  15. What We Periodically Relearn About Rent Control 18:10
  16. The Lots-of-Low-Satiety-Calories Business Isn't What it Used to Be 10:02
  17. The Bad Apple Problem 10:02
  18. Cultural Stasis? Or Just Rising Budgets, a Limited Supply of Good Movie Release Dates, and the Kelly Criterion? 14:55
  19. The Mythical Agent-Minute 12:13
  20. Blind Extrapolation as a Powerful Force in Finance 14:39
  21. What Does it Mean to Have a Trillion Dollars? 17:18
  22. It's Maturity Transformation All The Way Down 11:46
  23. Using AI for Writing like a Responsible Adult 10:06
  24. The Rocketship 13:05
  25. What Can You Learn from a Deterministically Chaotic Market Simulation? 13:03
  26. Why does Resource Extraction Produce Such Concentrated Wealth? 13:28
  27. Dead Airlines 9:54
  28. Are the AI Labs Ready for the AI Backlash? 11:55
  29. Ad-Based Platforms Have Mostly Solved Optimal Taxation 13:50
  30. Ring, Cloudflare, and the Supply Chain of State Capacity 14:44
  31. Uncanny AI 10:09
  32. Handy Robots 15:02
  33. Apple, Occasionally a Commodities Trading House 13:13
  34. Are We Already Building a Piecemeal AI Data Royalty Model? 9:08
  35. America Has a Comparative Advantage in Handling Global Disorder 13:25
  36. The Year of Convergence 13:36
  37. Routers, Apps, AGI 27:35
  38. In Defense of Generative Video Accelerationism 20:36
  39. Technological Progress is a Stack of S-Curves; Diffusion is a Stack of J-Curves 15:24
  40. Media Gluts Happen at the Level of Distribution, not Content 14:40
  41. A Sense of History 19:21
  42. On Faking It 'Til You Make It 13:19
  43. The Autistic Half-Century 16:55
  44. Rumor Markets 14:50
  45. Figure and the Crypto Mullet Strategy 14:02
  46. Corporate Populism 8:24
  47. Concentrate 14:05
  48. What Would the Aftermath of the AI Bust Look Like? 15:19
  49. Strip-Mining the Maybesphere 14:32
  50. The Finance of Alchemy 12:43